A new analysis of federal mortality data exposes how age brackets, combined causes of death, and selective comparisons can dramatically change the statistics used in America’s gun-control debate.
For years, gun-control organizations have repeated the claim that firearms are the leading cause of death among American children.
Now, a new analysis of federal mortality data is challenging that narrative.
According to an October 2026 report from the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s provisional 2025 mortality figures show that accidents killed nearly twice as many American children ages 1 through 17 as firearms did.
The figures reveal 4,140 deaths from unintentional injuries compared with 2,099 firearm-related deaths across all categories, including homicide, suicide, and accidental shootings.
The distinction raises important questions about how firearm mortality statistics are presented to the public and used to support restrictions on lawful gun ownership.
And the numbers become even more revealing when researchers examine which age groups are included.
CDC Data Tells a Different Story
The SAF analysis, prepared by Director of Legal Research and Education Kostas Moros, examined provisional 2025 mortality records available through the CDC WONDER database.
Among Americans ages 1 through 17, the report identified 2,099 firearm-related deaths.
That total included 1,130 homicides, 800 suicides, 97 accidental shootings, 68 deaths of undetermined intent, and fewer than 10 deaths involving legal intervention.
By comparison, motor-vehicle accidents accounted for 2,099 deaths, exactly matching the firearm total.
When other transportation-related accidents were included, that figure rose to 2,223.
And across all categories of unintentional injuries, the CDC recorded 4,140 deaths.
These distinctions matter because the CDC’s official leading-cause-of-death rankings classify fatalities primarily by underlying causes such as accidents, suicide, and homicide, rather than grouping all firearm-related deaths into a single category.
Firearms are a mechanism involved in several different causes of death.
That means the widely circulated firearm statistic combines deaths arising from circumstances that require different approaches to prevention.
The SAF report argues that presenting the combined firearm total without explaining those distinctions gives Americans an incomplete picture of childhood mortality.
Changing the Age Brackets Changes the Numbers
One of the most significant findings involves the definition of a child.
According to the report, 2,099 Americans ages 1 through 17 died from firearm-related injuries in 2025.
But including 18- and 19-year-olds increases that figure to 3,754.
That’s an additional 1,655 deaths from including two age groups composed of legal adults.
The distinction matters when organizations present statistics about children without clearly identifying the population being measured.
The report also found substantial differences between younger children and teenagers.
Of the 2,099 firearm-related deaths among minors ages 1 through 17, approximately 85% involved teenagers ages 13 through 17.
Younger children ages 1 through 12 accounted for 306 deaths.
Among those younger children, motor-vehicle accidents, cancer, and drowning each caused substantially more deaths than firearms.
For teenagers, however, the picture was different. Firearm-related deaths exceeded motor-vehicle accident deaths, with homicide and suicide accounting for the overwhelming majority.
These findings underscore why age-specific data matters.
A fatal accidental shooting involving a young child, the murder of a teenager, and a firearm-related suicide are not interchangeable events.
Understanding their different circumstances is essential to understanding the problem itself.
Constitutional Rights Demand Honest Statistical Analysis
The Second Amendment protects an individual constitutional right to keep and bear arms.
Public debate over that right should begin with accurate information about the problems government policies claim to address.
The SAF report illustrates how different statistical definitions can produce substantially different conclusions from the same federal mortality records.
Counting 18- and 19-year-old adults as children, combining firearm deaths across multiple causes, or comparing firearm fatalities only against motor-vehicle crashes can change how the public understands the data.
Those methodological choices should be disclosed rather than buried beneath sweeping claims.
Importantly, the findings do not erase the serious consequences of firearm homicide, suicide, or accidental shootings.
They demonstrate why preventing those deaths requires examining the underlying circumstances rather than treating every firearm-related fatality as the same event.
Responsible firearm storage, safety education, suicide prevention, and efforts to address violent crime all involve distinct considerations.
The report also does not establish whether any particular firearm restriction would be constitutional or effective. Those questions require separate legal and factual analysis.
For the Texas Gun Rights Foundation, this is precisely why constitutional education and careful legal research are so important.
Americans deserve to know what government statistics actually measure, how those figures are used, and what constitutional limits apply when policymakers seek to regulate protected conduct.
The CDC’s 2025 mortality figures are provisional and may change as records are finalized, but the SAF analysis highlights a problem that extends far beyond any single reporting year.
When constitutional rights are at stake, statistical definitions are not minor details. They can shape the entire public debate.
Chip in today to help the Texas Gun Rights Foundation expose misleading gun-control statistics, conduct constitutional research, and educate Texans about the facts behind attacks on their Second Amendment rights.
